In search of cleaner energy

Most economists and those familiar with international environmental issues were hardly surprised when Chinese President Hu Jintao announced to the United Nations Assembly in September that China would not commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, Jintao said China would go forward and expand clean energy production. In short, he said China would not promote greenhouse gas reduction at the expense of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

Rapidly developing countries like China, Brazil, India and Mexico have far more to lose by cutting back on carbon emissions than do more advanced economies. In Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, England and the United States, there has been a reduction in carbon emissions per GDP growth, according to a study by Jody Lipford of Presbyterian College and Bruce Yandle of Clemson University. The two economists traced the relationship between economic growth as measured by the GDP and carbon emissions between 1950 and 2004. During this period, they also found there was no decline in emissions per unit of GDP growth in countries with less-developed economies, such as Russia, Brazil, India and Mexico.

This study shows that as incomes rise, people in developed countries tend to reduce emissions threatening their quality of life. Developing countries, however, have a greater incentive for rapid economic development.

Most developing countries also create more pollutants per capita because they have relatively inefficient energy technologies. According to the Property and Environment Research Center, China emits 2,173,000 metric tons of carbon to yield a $1 increase in per capita income. The United States emits one-tenth as much — 204,000 metric tons — to get the same dollar increase in GDP. Meanwhile, France emits just 2,470 metric tons — one-tenth of the U.S. — for every dollar increase in GDP per capita.

France's enviable track record in increasing per capita income while generating fewer metric tons of carbon is directly related to its emphasis on, and continued refinement of, nuclear power. That fact, along with its relatively small population, has made economic growth in France a relatively less costly exercise in terms of pollutants emitted. The other extreme is China's exorbitant ratio of per capita income to carbon emissions, a derivative of its size and its polluting energy source, namely bituminous coal.

The data clearly show that efforts by developed countries to reduce emissions will therefore be dwarfed by the pollutants produced by developing countries. Asking developed countries to unilaterally reduce pollutants is a policy doomed for failure. Instead, it makes more sense fiscally and environmentally to improve incentives for developing and discovering cleaner energy.

Northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York have an opportunity to become part of the solution through careful and thoughtfully regulated extraction of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale. Natural gas emits far less carbon than oil or coal. Other technologies such as nuclear-generated power and wind power also offer significant opportunities, but will take longer to develop. Natural gas is an excellent short-term way to limit pollutants while not sacrificing continued economic growth and prosperity here and abroad.